A quantitative assessment of empirical magnetic field models at geosynchronous orbit during magnetic storms

[1] We evaluate the performance of recent empirical magnetic field models (Tsyganenko, 1996, 2002a, 2002b; Tsyganenko and Sitnov, 2005, hereafter referred to as T96, T02 and TS05, respectively) during magnetic storm times including both pre- and post-storm intervals. The model outputs are compared with GOES observations of the magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit. In the case of a major magnetic storm, the T96 and T02 models predict anomalously strong negative Bz at geostationary orbit on the nightside due to input values exceeding the model limits, whereas a comprehensive magnetic field data survey using GOES does not support that prediction. On the basis of additional comparisons using 52 storm events, we discuss the strengths and limitations of each model. Furthermore, we quantify the performance of individual models at predicting geostationary magnetic fields as a function of local time, Dst, and storm phase. Compared to the earlier models (T96 and T02), the most recent storm-time model (TS05) has the best overall performance across the entire range of local times, storm levels, and storm phases at geostationary orbit. The field residuals between TS05 and GOES are small (≤3 nT) compared to the intrinsic short time-scale magnetic variability of the geostationary environment even during non-storm conditions (∼24 nT). Finally, we demonstrate how field model errors may affect radiation belt studies when estimating electron phase space density

Modeling radiation belt radial diffusion in ULF wave fields: 2. Estimating rates of radial diffusion using combined MHD and particle codes

[1] Quantifying radial transport of radiation belt electrons in ULF wave fields is essential for understanding the variability of the trapped relativistic electrons. To estimate the radial diffusion coefficients (DLL), we follow MeV electrons in realistic magnetospheric configurations and wave fields calculated from a global MHD code. We create idealized pressure-driven MHD simulations for controlled solar wind velocities (hereafter referred to as pressure-driven Vx simulations) with ULF waves that are comparable to GOES data under similar conditions, by driving the MHD code with synthetic pressure profiles that mimic the pressure variations of a particular solar wind velocity. The ULF wave amplitude, in both magnetic and electric fields, increases at larger radial distance and during intervals with higher solar wind velocity and pressure fluctuations. To calculate DLL as a function of solar wind velocity (Vx = 400 and 600 km/s), we follow 90 degree pitch angle electrons in magnetic and electric fields of the pressure-driven Vx simulations. DLL is higher at larger radial distance and for the case with higher solar wind velocity and pressure variations. Our simulated DLL values are relatively small compared to previous studies which used larger wave fields in their estimations. For comparison, we scale our DLL values to match the wave amplitudes of the previous studies with those of the idealized MHD simulations. After the scaling, our DLL values for Vx = 600 km/s are comparable to theDLL values derived from Polar measurements during nonstorm intervals. This demonstrates the use of MHD models to quantify the effect of pressure-driven ULF waves on radiation belt electrons and thus to differentiate the radial diffusive process from other mechanisms

Modeling radiation belt radial diffusion in ULF wave fields: 1. Quantifying ULF wave power at geosynchronous orbit in observations and in global MHD model

[1] To provide critical ULF wave field information for radial diffusion studies in the radiation belts, we quantify ULF wave power (f = 0.5–8.3 mHz) in GOES observations and magnetic field predictions from a global magnetospheric model. A statistical study of 9 years of GOES data reveals the wave local time distribution and power at geosynchronous orbit in field-aligned coordinates as functions of wave frequency, solar wind conditions (Vx, ΔPd and IMF Bz) and geomagnetic activity levels (Kp, Dst and AE). ULF wave power grows monotonically with increasing solar wind Vx, dynamic pressure variations ΔPd and geomagnetic indices in a highly correlated way. During intervals of northward and southward IMF Bz, wave activity concentrates on the dayside and nightside sectors, respectively, due to different wave generation mechanisms in primarily open and closed magnetospheric configurations. Since global magnetospheric models have recently been used to trace particles in radiation belt studies, it is important to quantify the wave predictions of these models at frequencies relevant to electron dynamics (mHz range). Using 27 days of real interplanetary conditions as model inputs, we examine the ULF wave predictions modeled by the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry magnetohydrodynamic code. The LFM code does well at reproducing, in a statistical sense, the ULF waves observed by GOES. This suggests that the LFM code is capable of modeling variability in the magnetosphere on ULF time scales during typical conditions. The code provides a long-missing wave field model needed to quantify the interaction of radiation belt electrons with realistic, global ULF waves throughout the inner magnetosphere

Assessing access of galactic cosmic rays at Moon\u27s orbit

[1] Characterizing the lunar radiation environment is essential for preparing future robotic and human explorations on lunar bases. Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) represent one source of ionizing radiation at the Moon that poses a biological risk. Because GCR are charged particles, their paths are affected by the magnetic fields along their trajectories. Unlike the Earth, the Moon has no strong, shielding magnetic field of its own. However, as it orbits Earth, the Moon traverses not only the weak interplanetary magnetic field but also the distant magnetic tail of Earth\u27s magnetosphere. We combine an empirical magnetic field model of Earth\u27s magnetosphere with a fully-relativistic charged particle trajectory code to model and assess the access of GCR at the Moon\u27s orbit. We follow protons with energies of 1, 10 and 100 MeV starting from an isotropic distribution at large distances outside a volume of space including Earth\u27s magnetosphere and the lunar orbit. The simulation result shows that Earth\u27s magnetosphere does not measurably modify protons of energy greater than 1 MeV at distances outside the geomagnetic cutoff imposed by Earth\u27s strong dipole field very near to the planet. Therefore, in contrast to Winglee and Harnett (2007), we conclude that Earth\u27s magnetosphere does not provide any substantial magnetic shielding at the Moon\u27s orbit. These simulation results will be compared to LRO/CRaTER data after its planned launch in June 2009

Storm‐time configuration of the inner magnetosphere: Lyon‐Fedder‐Mobarry MHD code, Tsyganenko model, and GOES observations

[1] We compare global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation results with an empirical model and observations to understand the magnetic field configuration and plasma distribution in the inner magnetosphere, especially during geomagnetic storms. The physics-based Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) code simulates Earth\u27s magnetospheric topology and dynamics by solving the equations of ideal MHD. Quantitative comparisons of simulated events with observations reveal strengths and possible limitations and suggest ways to improve the LFM code. Here we present a case study that compares the LFM code to both a semiempirical magnetic field model and to geosynchronous measurements from GOES satellites. During a magnetic cloud event, the simulation and model predictions compare well qualitatively with observations, except during storm main phase. Quantitative statistical studies of the MHD simulation shows that MHD field lines are consistently under-stretched, especially during storm time (Dst \u3c −20 nT) on the nightside, a likely consequence of an insufficient representation of the inner magnetosphere current systems in ideal MHD. We discuss two approaches for improving the LFM result: increasing the simulation spatial resolution and coupling LFM with a ring current model based on drift physics (i.e., the Rice Convection Model (RCM)). We show that a higher spatial resolution LFM code better predicts geosynchronous magnetic fields (not only the average Bz component but also higher-frequency fluctuations driven by the solar wind). An early version of the LFM/RCM coupled code, which runs so far only for idealized events, yields a much-improved ring current, quantifiable by decreased field strengths at all local times compared to the LFM-only code

Heliospheric plasma sheets

[1] As a high-beta feature on scales of hours or less, the heliospheric plasma sheet (HPS) encasing the heliospheric current sheet shows a high degree of variability. A study of 52 sector boundaries identified in electron pitch angle spectrograms in Wind data from 1995 reveals that only half concur with both high-beta plasma and current sheets, as required for an HPS. The remaining half lack either a plasma sheet or current sheet or both. A complementary study of 37 high-beta events reveals that only 5 contain sector boundaries while nearly all (34) contain local magnetic field reversals, however brief. We conclude that high-beta plasma sheets surround current sheets but that most of these current sheets are associated with fields turned back on themselves. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that high-beta plasma sheets, both at and away from sector boundaries, are the heliospheric counterparts of the small coronal transients observed at the tips of helmet streamers, in which case the proposed mechanism for their release, interchange reconnection, could be responsible for the field inversions

Predicting magnetopause crossings at geosynchronous orbit during the Halloween storms

[1] In late October and early November of 2003, the Sun unleashed a powerful series of events known as the Halloween storms. The coronal mass ejections launched by the Sun produced several severe compressions of the magnetosphere that moved the magnetopause inside of geosynchronous orbit. Such events are of interest to satellite operators, and the ability to predict magnetopause crossings along a given orbit is an important space weather capability. In this paper we compare geosynchronous observations of magnetopause crossings during the Halloween storms to crossings determined from the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry global magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the magnetosphere as well to predictions of several empirical models of the magnetopause position. We calculate basic statistical information about the predictions as well as several standard skill scores. We find that the current Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry simulation of the storm provides a slightly better prediction of the magnetopause position than the empirical models we examined for the extreme conditions present in this study. While this is not surprising, given that conditions during the Halloween storms were well outside the parameter space of the empirical models, it does point out the need for physics-based models that can predict the effects of the most extreme events that are of significant interest to users of space weather forecasts

Modelling the Asymmetric Volatility in Hog Prices in Taiwan

Prices in the hog industry in Taiwan are determined according to an auction system. There are significant differences in hog prices before, during and after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). The paper models growth rates and volatility in daily hog prices in Taiwan from 23 March 1999 to 30 June 2007, which enables an analysis of the effects of joining the WTO. The empirical results have significant implications for risk management and policy in the agricultural industry. The three sub-samples for the periods before, during and after joining the WTO display significantly different volatility persistence of symmetry, asymmetry and leverage, respectively

On the cause and extent of outer radiation belt losses during the 30 September 2012 dropout event

Abstract On 30 September 2012, a flux dropout occurred throughout Earth\u27s outer electron radiation belt during the main phase of a strong geomagnetic storm. Using eight spacecraft from NASA\u27s Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) and Van Allen Probes missions and NOAA\u27s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites constellation, we examined the full extent and timescales of the dropout based on particle energy, equatorial pitch angle, radial distance, and species. We calculated phase space densities of relativistic electrons, in adiabatic invariant coordinates, which revealed that loss processes during the dropout were \u3e 90% effective throughout the majority of the outer belt and the plasmapause played a key role in limiting the spatial extent of the dropout. THEMIS and the Van Allen Probes observed telltale signatures of loss due to magnetopause shadowing and subsequent outward radial transport, including similar loss of energetic ring current ions. However, Van Allen Probes observations suggest that another loss process played a role for multi-MeV electrons at lower L shells (L\u3c ∼4). Key Points Dropout events can encompass the entire outer radiation belt Dropouts can result in \u3e90% losses and be a hard reset on the system Loss at L \u3e ∼4 is dominated by MP shadowing and outward transport

An econometric analysis of SARS and Avian flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia

This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu will be compared directly according to human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS